Albatross Report (zzookeepp)

1.  SS(?) Kid Golub - Souffle ($100.5M over 5 seasons, 5 left)
With a contract valued at $100.5M over 5 years, no bidding war got crazier this offseason than that for The Kid. While his embarrassing offensive performance thus far is no doubt an underachievement relative to his ratings, it should be obvious to most observers that he will never be much of a game-changer offensively. He can't run bases, he won't hit much for power, and while he will always be tough to strike out, his contact and batting eye probably won't get him on-base much more than .350 throughout his career. And defensively, he's actually below average for a shortstop. Shortstop is the only position at which his offensive capabilities would be considered above average. In total, he's a player that has many strengths, but those strengths don't combine to fill an obvious role in a quality ML lineup. By my estimate, The Kid is overpayed by ~$15M per season. In the words of Mojo Nixon, 'you could buy a lot of Mad Dog with that.'


2.  SP Dorian Baker - Streakin' Ricans ($24.4M over 4 seasons, 3 left)
When Feamster signed Baker back in s11, you could hardly find a better starter on the free agent market. He could pitch 9 innings every 5th day with control and consistently tough stuff. But that man was 38 years old. Emphasis: old. Now he's 39, and take a good look at his control, splits and pitch command: it's not pretty, falling with nearly ever update. Baker can still hold his own against big league hitters, but come playoff time this year, he'll be struggling badly. Think it's worrisome now? At age 40, Baker will be a glorified long reliever making starter $$. And at age 41, the final year of his contract? By that time, San Juan will be eating this contract, either with a release or by putting Dorian out to pasture at AAA. 


3.  SP Don Lee - Rebels ($80.1M over 5 seasons, 5 left)
Don Lee was a very hot topic this offseason, sparking a bidding war that both excited some owners and confused others. Count me among the moderately confused. Certainly, I like Don Lee a lot… control, splits, great fastball and pitch command. But I could really only see him as a long reliever and occasional spot starter. Witness his performance over this season so far, and you can see he struggles to make it past the 5th inning. For this kind of $$$, I'd expect at least 200 innings, and I'd prefer 220+. Lee will be lucky to get to 175. The bidding war for Lee probably reflects the unusually poor free agent pool this offseason. Frankly, he was the best out there, so by that criterion, he might be worth this much money. But come next season, the fans in Memphis might be thinking off all the great free agents they will pass up because of this contract. 


4.  Don Casian - Music City Stars ($60M over 5 seasons, 5 left)
The Don is a consistent power hitter who will do well playing any corner position. At age 31, however, he is already showing clear signs of decline, particularly in power. Casian will be a strong asset for his team this year and next, but come age 33, this contract will start to smell bad. When considered alongside the very reasonable contracts offered to Rey James and Carson Sherman, both of whom are comparable corner outfielders to Casian, $12M/year is a lot to pay. Further consider that this contract awards Casian a no-trade clause, so The Don can rest assured that he will celebrate his 35th birthday amidst that urban jungle of neon lights and making a cool $10M. Nashville is a surprisingly expensive team for a borderline wild-card squad. This sort of contract would be better suited to a team anticipating a legitimate run at the World Series. 


5.  Felipe Valdes - Group W Bench ($39M over 3 seasons, 3 left)
Group W sought a starter with enough durability and stamina to withstand their demanding 4-starter rotation, and took a moderate albatross off the hands of the Major Duckies. Zzookeepp remarked in confidence to Aaron Clarke, 'If I'm paying $13M for a starter, he'd damn well better give me 220+ innings!' And in accordance with Murphy's Law, Valdes promptly hit the DL. At age 30, Valdes can be reasonably expected to finish this contract with an above .500 win%, but he is highly unlikely to repeat his past performance as the record-holder for single season victories (25). He might be overpaid by $5 or 6 million, but considered alongside Don Lee, Valdes looks like a bargain. 


6.  Mac Perry - Slugs ($39.5M over 5 seasons, 5 left)
Mac Perry has still got it! Age 34, this gentleman is on pace for 200+ innings of Cy Young Award-caliber pitching and shares the league lead in wins (11). Perry is an essential part of the early season success of the Slugs, but the lefty is already showing some signs of decline. Further consider his below average makeup and health, and Perry looks like a timebomb. It might not be today. It might not be tomorrow. But considered over 5 seasons of heavy use, you can bet Mac Perry will dislocate his shoulder and accelerate his natural age-related decline considerably. The odds might even favor the reoccurrence of this scenario twice or thrice. With a back-loaded contract, it's a safe bet that after another season or two, 2_dogs will shop Perry. He might have to throw in a couple bottles of snake oil to close that deal. But in the meantime, the good people of Salem can enjoy the show.